Offense Wins Championships?

One of the most debated adages in football is that offense wins games, defense wins championships.  This mindset has certainly been under fire over the last decade as we have witnessed the evolution of the pass happy offense.  The writers at Freakonomics, was the latest to conclude that the defense is given a disproportionate amount of championship credit.  A quick look at the numbers and one could make such a conclusion, but an in depth analysis will paint a different picture.

Statistics are an interesting thing.  You can look at the season end numbers and determine which quarterbacks were most successful.  You can see which offenses were the most anemic, which defenses were the most porous, and which kicker was the most accurate.  Unfortunately, those numbers fail to capture the most important depiction, how those teams are performing going into the playoffs.

Here's an example.  The New York Giants defense entered the playoffs in 2012 ranked 27th out of the 32 teams.  If you look back at the way the team performed through the final six games, you would think they were the best defense that year.  They overcame injuries and other inconsistencies to become a dynamic defense.  Unfortunately, their 27th rank made them look like a prime candidate to run up the score on.  We saw differently in the playoffs.

Another example.  Buffalo Bills fans are familiar with Ryan Fitzpatrick's struggles in 2011.  After a phenomenal first half of the season, he completely tanked and and finished with mediocre statistics.  He literally went from tops in the league, to middle of the pack, which means his performance over the final eight games must have been worst in the NFL.  

The problem with looking at the season statistics is it doesn't depict an accurate placement of where a person or team currently stands.  Perhaps a five-game running average of statistics would provide more solid statistics for where a team is trending.

Perhaps the key to understanding the adage is realizing the grammatical significance the "s" makes on championships.  This would indicate multiple championships—dynasties.  

What defenses in the leagues history has had the opportunity to carry their respective teams to perennial greatness?  The Pittsburg Steelers had their Steel Curtain, the Vikings had their Purple People Eaters, and the Rams had their Fearsome Foursome.  The Patriots had a defense that was at the top in the league when they were winning their Super Bowls.

Freakonomics also points out that the Super Bowls have had a higher scoring output than the respective teams score during the regular season.  However, they also fail to mention that the two weeks to prepare for a game is a luxury that just isn't available during the regular season.  In fact, teams coming off a bye week generally do score more points in their next game, so their data is obviously incomprehensible and flawed.  

I will say though, if there is anything that we can learn from the Super Bowl tonight, it is that the special teams are too often overlooked, and that it is important to pay more than just half the power bill.